By Kim Mackrael and Paul Vieira
The government's annual fall economic update, speeches from the country's top central bankers, key data points and earnings reports are highlights on this week's Canadian events calendar.
It will be a particularly busy Tuesday for market watchers in Canada, who will get August gross domestic product data, a speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and the federal government's fall economic update.
August GDP is expected to come in at 0.2%, according to TD Bank, which says growth will likely be driven by goods-producing industries like the energy sector as the services side of the economy lags on weakness in retail sales and Vancouver housing. At that pace, TD expects annualized growth above 3.0% for the third quarter as a whole, which would fall roughly in line with the Bank of Canada's forecast of a 3.2% expansion.
Mr. Poloz is scheduled to speak in Vancouver at noon EDT, several hours after the GDP data is released. His speech is to focus on inflation targeting, but investors may pay closer attention on the press conference that follows for any further hints on the central bank's outlook. Earlier this month, it held its key interest rate at 0.5%.
Tuesday will also see Canadian Finance Minister Bill Morneau unveil the government's annual fall economic update. The central bank and market watchers have downgraded their outlook for Canadian growth, and Mr. Morneau is expected to do the same. That's likely to result in larger budget deficits in the current and next fiscal years. Of particular interest is whether Mr. Morneau unveils new fiscal-stimulus measures to stoke disappointinggrowth, or signals his intent to push more aggressively on this front.
Mr. Poloz and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins have two other public events planned for the week. Ms. Wilkins will participate in a panel discussion hosted by the Ontario Securities Commission in Toronto on Wednesday afternoon, and Mr. Poloz will speak at a ceremony to induct him into his hometown city of Oshawa, Ontario's Walk of Fame on Thursday night.
On Friday, September merchandise trade data and the October jobs report are due out. Economists expect the trade deficit to narrow to C$1.70 billion from C$1.94 billion, with exports continuing to recover after a dismal second quarter, National Bank Financial says. Canada's labor market is expected to weaken in October, with CIBC World Markets anticipating a loss of about 13,000 jobs after an outsized gain in September. A decline in the participation rate will likely keep the unemployment rate at its current7.0% level, CIBC economists say.
On the earnings front this week, third-quarter reports on tap include pipeline operators TransCanada Corp. on Wednesday and Enbridge Inc. on Thursday. Also due Thursday are third-quarter results from Agrium Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Encana Corp.
Write to Kim Mackrael at email@example.com and Paul Vieira at firstname.lastname@example.org
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
October 31, 2016 08:56 ET (12:56 GMT)
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