By Min Zeng
The U.S. government bond market was little changed Tuesday, following solid price gains on Monday, as new Treasury debt supply looms.
In recent trading, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was 2.378%, according to Tradeweb, compared with 2.377% Monday. Yields rise as bond prices fall.
A $24 billion sale of three-year Treasury notes is due to take place at 1 p.m. EST Tuesday, followed by a $20 billion sale of 10-year notes Wednesday and a $12 billion sale of 30-year bonds on Thursday.
The bond market has been stabilizing from one of the biggest selloffs since the financial crisis. The 10-year yield has jumped from 1.867% on Nov. 8, the U.S. Election Day. After reaching a two-year high of 2.6% in mid-December, it has since been pulling back.
Selling Treasury bonds had been the main trade since the election as investors had bet that expansive fiscal stimulus proposed by President-elect Donald Trump will lead to stronger economic growth, higher inflation and a potentially faster pace of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. All these factors tend to shrink the value of outstanding bonds. Inflation chips away bonds' fixed returns over time and is a big threat to long-term government bonds.
Traders say the big rise in yields has reflected investors' optimism over the fiscal outlook and now investors await policy details. Some investors have stepped in to buy bonds at more attractive yields than a few months ago. They are concerned that Mr. Trump may fail to live up to market expectations.
Some have pared back wagers betting on higher yields. In doing so, they return to the bond market as buyers, sending yields lower.
Mr. Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference Wednesday before his inauguration next week.
Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets, said any focus on fiscal stimulus "would spur renewed reflation jitters," which would hurt the bond market. The risk, he said, is that 2017 "will be the year to overpromise and underdeliver."
There are some signs that wagers on higher yields, known as short bets, are getting stretched.
Hedge funds and money managers held a net $94.3 billion in Treasury futures contracts, betting on a rise in U.S. bond yields for the week that ended Jan. 3, according to data from TD Securities. It was the highest since 2008, when the bank started to track the weekly data. The amount has soared from $42.2 billion for the week that ended on the U.S. election day.
A gauge of sentiment on the Treasury market showed Tuesday thatinvestors are being the least bearish on bond prices since late November.
The share of investors expecting lower bond yields, or longs, rose to 16% for the week that ended Monday from 11% a week ago, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s Treasury client survey. The share of investors expecting higher bond yields, or shorts, also rose to 23% from 20%. Because the longs rose at a faster pace, it narrowed the longs-shorts spread to negative 7%, the smallest since Nov. 28.
The rise in longs benefited from the fence-sitting camp that fell to 61% from 69% a week ago.
The 10-year yield has risen by more than 1 percentage point from its low set in early July. The yield was still less than half of where it had traded in 2007.
Write to Min Zeng at email@example.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 10, 2017 11:02 ET (16:02 GMT)
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