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Going beyond murder and theft, our algorithm accounts for natural disaster threats.
Author:
Marc Getzoff
Project Coordinator:
Edith Updike
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR A NATION TO BE SAFE?
What makes a nation “safe”? Typically, rankings look at rates of homicide or violent crime overall. But there are other threats to a person's well-being. What about safety from disease? Or, given the extreme weather events of recent years, from risk of natural disaster?
Japan, relatively peaceful but routinely devastated by earthquakes and storms, is more likely to deploy its military for disaster relief than combat. Here, Japanese troops are briefed at Kadena Air Base prior to distributing supplies to victims of the Tohoku earthquake in March 2011.
The Global Finance ranking of World's Safest Countries incorporates three measures of security and safety. One component is each nation's score in the Global Peace Index, created by the Institute for Economics and Peace, which measures social safety, violent conflict, and militarization. We also mix in each country's score for Safety and Security as measured by the World Economic Forum in its annual Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report. This measures the likelihood of violence, terrorism, and the country’s anti-crime procedures. Lastly, we incorporated each nation's risk for natural disasters, also from the WEF.
Rather than just measuring how likely you are to get murdered and robbed, this index also measures how likely it is you will get caught in a tornado or tsunami. In essence, it measures the general sense of physical safety for people living in or visiting the country.
This approach highlights some of the lurking dangers in famously “safe” countries. Japan, for example, where crime and bellicosity are low but tectonic plates and ocean storms wield great power, ranks 111th, just ahead of Yemen, which has the lowest score for peace but also a low risk of natural disaster. Likewise Nigeria, among the bottom 20, scores high for violence, but relatively low for natural disaster risk.
New Zealand’s exposure to natural disasters—such as the earthquake that liquified these roads in Christ Church—pushes it out of the top 20. Photo by Martin Luff
Among the least-safe countries are a few that, like Japan, are largely safe from human violence but often pummeled by Mother Nature. Those include Vietnam (118th), Mauritius (124th) and Costa Rica (126th). In some cases, natural disaster risk pushes countries that are otherwise quite lovely out of the top 20, such as Denmark (22nd), New Zealand (23rd) and Australia (27th).
At the top of the list, the safest countries also include several Middle East nations whose Peace rankings are relatively low—Qatar (34th), United Arab Emirates (57th), Oman (66th), Saudi Arabia (110th)—but whose Natural Disaster rankings are compensatingly high: 1, 5, 15, and 2, respectively.
Saudi Arabian security forces on parade. Saudi Arabia scores low for peacefulness, but is second-safest when it comes to natural disasters.
And some countries squeaked into the top 20 with balanced risk portfolios. Poland, at #20, ranks 24th, 34th, and 25th, for respectively Peace, Safety, and Natural Disaster Risk. Sweden (#6), Norway (#7), Germany (#14) and Spain (#17) also show relatively balanced risk.
Many of the world’s “major players” in the global arena do not make either the best or the worst rankings. Curious? The UK comes in at 34th. The US, with a poor Peace score, is not far behind at 41st, and Israel is next at 42nd. China and Russia, also with low Peace scores, rank 69th and 70th, respectively. India comes in at 99th.
Table One: The Safest Countries in the World
Rank
Country
Global Finance Safety Index
1
Qatar
6.90
2
Iceland
7.36
3
Finland
8.37
4
Switzerland
8.79
5
Singapore
8.94
6
Sweden
8.94
7
Norway
9.09
8
United Arab Emirates
9.23
9
Austria
9.48
10
Canada
9.74
11
Estonia
9.78
12
Saudi Arabia
9.83
13
Portugal
9.83
14
Germany
9.86
15
Belgium
9.95
16
Slovenia
10.03
17
Spain
10.29
18
Oman
10.29
19
Czech Republic
10.38
20
Poland
10.45
Table Two: The Most Dangerous Countries in the World
Rank
Country
Global Finance Safety Index
112
Pakistan
20.21
113
Cameroon
20.33
114
Gambia
20.64
115
Burundi
20.73
116
Dominican Republic
20.95
117
Guyana
21.03
118
Vietnam
21.03
119
Haiti
21.06
120
Nigeria
21.08
121
Chad
21.15
122
Honduras
21.51
123
Jamaica
22.16
124
Mauritius
22.74
125
Nicaragua
23.43
126
Costa Rica
24.82
127
Cambodia
25.94
128
El Salvador
26.90
129
Bangladesh
28.83
130
Guatemala
30.85
131
Philippines
37.88
*Based on data from the World Economic Forum and The Global Institute For Peace
Table Three: Full Ranking of Safest Countries in the World
Global Finance magazine's safety index factors in risks of natural disaster with crime, terrorism and war to present a more rounded analysis of the World's Safest Countries.