Frontier Markets Report: Cuba
Obstacles and contradictions mar Cuba’s environment for foreign direct investment, but its market offers a wealth of opportunity.
Frontier Markets Report: Cuba
Brazil | Pedro Parente, who was appointed CEO of state-controlled oil producer Petrobras on May 19, brings both corporate and government experience to the new role.
Peru | Even though Pedro Pablo Kuczynski was elected Peru’s new president by a whisker, his victory was greeted with enthusiasm at home and abroad.
Brazil | Despite the optimistic expectations in 2009, when Rio de Janeiro was chosen to host the 2016 Summer Olympic Games, the competition in August is not likely to show Brazil in the best light.
Well known for his caution, Brazil Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles is well aware of the enormity of his nation’s fiscal hole. Brazil is likely to report a primary deficit of $36 billion this year, instead of the $6.8 billion surplus previously forecast.
While Latin American economies are expected to shrink by roughly 1% this year, Mexico is slated to grow 2.2%.
It’s been a long time coming, but Argentina is finally back. In mid-April, after being frozen out of global capital markets for 15 years, the country sold $16.5 billion of debt in an offering that was more than four times oversubscribed—the biggest bond ever sold in an emerging market.
Milestones | Brazil
In this time of recession, Brazil’s economy is becoming more agribusiness-oriented. The sector generated 23% of Brazilian GDP last year, after 21.4% in 2014, and accounted for 46.3% of total exports.
Milestones | Argentina
As Argentina prepares to launch a new bond issue in April, marking its return to international capital markets, investors are once again turning their attention to Buenos Aires, which has known 15 years of isolation.
Cuba: News that Anglo-Dutch consumer products company Unilever will return to Cuba to build a $35 million plant in the special development zone at the port of Mariel, about 40 kilometers west of Havana, is one of the clearest signs yet that the communist nation is taking a more pragmatic approach to foreign direct investment.
The republic of Trinidad and Tobago girds for austerity as oil brings in less foreign exchange.
Trends | Peace Deals
Low oil prices are widening Colombia’s current-account deficit, dampening the confidence of foreign investors and dragging down the economy.
Brazil: The Banco Central do Brasil gave new Finance minister Nelson Barbosa a bit of help on January 20, when it decided to hold the short-term interest rate, the Selic, to 14.25%.
The axe fell on Brazil heading into 2016 as it suffered a downgrade to junk status by Fitch Ratings, heightening the air of crisis as the beleaguered nation grapples with political turmoil and recession.
Corporate Governance | Management
Selling the assets could improve BTG’s net worth by 20 billion reais ($5 billion).
The opposition party in Venezuela won the majority of seats in the National Assembly (Venezuela’s parliament) in national elections early in December.
The appointment of Alfonso Prat-Gay as Argentina’s new Finance minister was a clear sign to international investors that president Mauricio Macri, sworn in December 10, was serious about unraveling the populist policies of the previous government.
Hit by a sharp decline in the price of copper, Chile is putting the brakes on public spending with a 2016 budget that aims at keeping costs under control.
He has become the face of Puerto Rico’s woes, warning in media interview after interview of its inability to pay its bills and serving as the island’s bearer of bad financial news.