Macroeconomy & Globalization

Our cover story this month focuses on a little-known fact: Global trade growth has slowed in recent years, and intraregional trade, especially in Asia, is becoming more prominent.

Monetary Policy | Capital Markets
Casting aside concerns about the strong dollar and weakness in economies abroad, the Federal Reserve achieved an historic interest rate liftoff in mid-December.

Dealmaking | Capital Markets
Global merger and acquisition prospects for 2016 seem likely to exceed the pace of activity in 2015, although the reasons are likely to differ from region to region.

World trade growth is slowing. Its future may depend on internal trade within a handful of discrete, powerful regions—especially Asia. 

Security Risks | Management
Recent terrorist events around the world, from California to Paris, have forced multinational companies to think more seriously about security and nonmarket risks, and the impact of threats on their operations and business continuity.

The opposition party in Venezuela won the majority of seats in the National Assembly (Venezuela’s parliament) in national elections early in December.

Management | Trade Negotiations
Corporations’ business decisions depend on regulatory certainty, but as the passing of TPP legislation faces various hurdles, corporate decision-making processes will need to remain flexible.

The world’s richest countries are getting tougher on corporate tax avoidance. But experts predict that, new guidelines notwithstanding, companies will still find ways around the system.

Hit by a sharp decline in the price of copper, Chile is putting the brakes on public spending with a 2016 budget that aims at keeping costs under control.

Poland
The appointment of Beata Szydło as Poland’s new prime minister, following the victory of her conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) in the latest parliamentary election, has stirred concerns about her relative inexperience and a potentially populist, rightward lurch for the nation.

Chinese president Xi Jinping met with Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou on November 7 in Singapore, the first time leaders from the two governments have come together since 1949.

Elections over, Turkey firms up plans to become a financial hub.

In the wake of falling commodities prices, Africa’s largest and oil-rich economies are now in damage-repair mode.

Iceland has recovered smartly from the worst recession in its history. Now it must keep inflation at bay—and that might require a monetary overhaul.

Grassroots anti-corruption movement promises new era of transparency.

An expanding middle class and strong long-term fundamentals suggest that pessimism over developing nations’ economic prospects may be overdone.

Capital Markets | Foreign Exchange Controls
In early November, Chinese Communist Party leaders announced plans to make the renminbi a “freely tradable and usable currency”  by 2020—when the latest five-year development plan is set to finish—according to a statement by the party’s Xinhua News Agency.

Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg call on old and new strengths to jump-start growth.

In our annual special issue on emerging markets, we take a macro and regional view of the new realities (yes, more than one) that have developed over the past year. There are quite a few surprises.

Central Europe and the Southeast revive, while the CIS struggles with low oil prices and sanctions.