Macroeconomy & Globalization

The question this year for investors in China is whether the government will continue moving toward a free-market economy—or keep grabbing the wheel.

The republic of Trinidad and Tobago girds for austerity as oil brings in less foreign exchange.

The foundations for economic recovery have been laid by Matteo Renzi’s government, which is tackling fundamental issues at the heart of Italy’s problems. But he has yet to work his magic on public spending.

Trends | Peace Deals
Low oil prices are widening Colombia’s current-account deficit, dampening the confidence of foreign investors and dragging down the economy.

A new era kicked off on December 31, 2015, for the 10 countries that are part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations: The alliance launched the Asean Economic Community (AEC), a trade bloc aimed at creating a unified, cross-border market where labor, services and capital can flow without restrictions.

South Africa: After burning through two Finance ministers in 18 months—with the second having held the job for less than a week­—South Africa’s president, Jacob Zuma, moved in mid-December to restore a measure of stability to the post.

Brazil: The Banco Central do Brasil gave new Finance minister Nelson Barbosa a bit of help on January 20, when it decided to hold the short-term interest rate, the Selic, to 14.25%.

Tsai Ing-wen, leader of what was—until a couple of weeks ago—Taiwan’s opposition party, will become the island’s first female president this spring following a January 16 election in which she and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won control of both the presidency and the legislature from the incumbent Kuomintang (KMT) party.

Mining and gas reserves made Mozambique a darling among foreign investors—until last year. Now the government needs to diversify.

The new year started with unusually negative intensity and uncertainty in the financial markets and the global economy.

Our cover story this month focuses on a little-known fact: Global trade growth has slowed in recent years, and intraregional trade, especially in Asia, is becoming more prominent.

Monetary Policy | Capital Markets
Casting aside concerns about the strong dollar and weakness in economies abroad, the Federal Reserve achieved an historic interest rate liftoff in mid-December.

Dealmaking | Capital Markets
Global merger and acquisition prospects for 2016 seem likely to exceed the pace of activity in 2015, although the reasons are likely to differ from region to region.

World trade growth is slowing. Its future may depend on internal trade within a handful of discrete, powerful regions—especially Asia. 

Security Risks | Management
Recent terrorist events around the world, from California to Paris, have forced multinational companies to think more seriously about security and nonmarket risks, and the impact of threats on their operations and business continuity.

The opposition party in Venezuela won the majority of seats in the National Assembly (Venezuela’s parliament) in national elections early in December.

Management | Trade Negotiations
Corporations’ business decisions depend on regulatory certainty, but as the passing of TPP legislation faces various hurdles, corporate decision-making processes will need to remain flexible.

The world’s richest countries are getting tougher on corporate tax avoidance. But experts predict that, new guidelines notwithstanding, companies will still find ways around the system.

Hit by a sharp decline in the price of copper, Chile is putting the brakes on public spending with a 2016 budget that aims at keeping costs under control.

Poland
The appointment of Beata Szydło as Poland’s new prime minister, following the victory of her conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) in the latest parliamentary election, has stirred concerns about her relative inexperience and a potentially populist, rightward lurch for the nation.