By Kevin Baxter and Jenny W. Hsu
Oil prices were up Monday as the market recovered some of last week's losses on brighter market sentiment and renewed hope that Hillary Clinton can secure the U.S. presidency when voters go to the polls on Tuesday.
The January contract for global crude benchmark Brent was up 1.29% at $46.17 while its U.S. counterpart West Texas Intermediate gained 1.66%, rising to $44.81 for December deliveries.
U.S. voters will on Tuesday decide between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and businessman Donald Trump as their next president. Some analysts believe Mrs. Clinton, who has shown support for clean energy, may remove billions of dollars' worth of subsidies for oil and gas companies, making it less lucrative for them to keep pumping. The move could eliminate some of the overhang that has kept oil prices suppressed for more than two years.
A "Clinton victory on Tuesday could help risk assets such as oil rebound sharply," said Gordon Kwan, head of oil and gas research at Nomura.
Tuesday will also see the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's November Short Term Energy Outlook. Bjarne Schieldrop, an analyst at Sweden's SEB bank, said in a note that market observers will be eager to find out the EIA's forecast for U.S. oil production in 2017.
Mr. Schieldrop is convinced that the 8.6 million barrels a day forecast from the October report will be raised again, by as much as 200,000 barrels a day. A bearish forecast could provide a headwind for prices as well as heap even more pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. He added that OPEC productioncuts would raise prices in 2017, but also run the risk of re-energizing the U.S. shale sector, which could once again lead to an oversupplied market in 2018.
After last week's bear run on Brent, which knocked 8.3% off the value of its January contract barrel price, New York-based Morgan Stanley warned against being overly skeptical of OPEC's ability to cut its output.
In a note, analysts said that OPEC still had the ability to "spook markets with rhetoric" and therefore traders and investors must be wary about being caught on the wrong side of a headline in the run-up to its Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna.
Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for December--the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 0.25% to $1.38 a gallon, while December diesel traded at $1.44, up 0.99%. ICE gasoil for November changed hands at $419.00 a metric ton, up $1.25 from Friday's settlement.
Write to Kevin Baxter at Kevin.Baxter@wsj.com and Jenny W. Hsuat firstname.lastname@example.org
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 07, 2016 06:36 ET (11:36 GMT)
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