The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S. Increased
Economy to Continue Expanding Through Early 2017
NEW YORK, Nov. 18, 2016
NEW YORK, Nov. 18, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 124.5 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent decline in August.
"The U.S. LEI increased in October for a second consecutive month. Although its six-month growth rate has moderated, the index still suggests that the economy will continue expanding into early 2017," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. "The interest rate spreadand average weekly hours were the main drivers of October's improvement, helping to offset some of the weaknesses in claims for unemployment insurance and new orders."
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in October to 114.3 (2010 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in September, and a 0.2 percent increase in August.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index(R) (LAG) for the U.S. increased 0.2 percent in October to 122.9 (2010 = 100), following a 0.2 percent increase in September, and a 0.3 percent increase in August.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component -- primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers' new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM(R) Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index(TM)
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
Summary Table of Composite Economic Indexes
Aug Sep Oct Oct
Leading Index 124.1 124.4 124.5 p
Percent Change-0.2 0.2 0.1 p0.7
Diffusion 60.0 50.0 60.0 60.0
Coincident Index 114.1 r114.2 114.3 p
Percent Change 0.2 r0.1 r0.1 p0.8
Diffusion 62.5 75.0 87.5 100.0
Lagging Index 122.4 r122.6 r122.9 p
Percent Change 0.3 r0.2 0.2 p1.2
Diffusion 64.3 64.3 57.1 64.3
p Preliminary r Revised
Indexes equal 100 in 2010
Source: The Conference Board
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November 18, 2016 10:15 ET (15:15 GMT)
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