After recessions economies often bounce back more vigorously than ever—unless they stumble across new obstacles along their way.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the global economy was set for the fastest post-recession recovery since World War II. The pandemic had shuttered businesses, halted travels, left supply chains in disarray. The recovery was uneven across countries and regions but, as it often happens after deep recessions, it was strong: following a drop of 3% in 2020 and a bounce-back of 6.1% in 2021, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was estimating global growth to continue strengthening by 4.9% in 2022.
The war in Ukraine changed that. In its April’s World Economic Outlook report, the Fund reduced its previous forecast by 1.3% points to 3.6%, with downgrades for 143 countries. Down the line, further setbacks are not out of the question.
Granted, even before Ukraine, the world’s economy was still grappling with the effects of the pandemic and other numerous preexisting conditions. Presenting the report to the press, the IMF’s managing director Kristalina Georgieva listed some of them: “Accelerated inflation; it has become a clear and present danger for many countries. Rising food and fuel prices are straining the budgets of ordinary families to a breaking point. Financial tightening because of the need to counter inflation, hitting countries with high debt the hardest. Frequent wide‑ranging lockdowns in China, causing further bottlenecks in global supply chains.” One additional dark cloud, she noted, hangs over our heads: “The risk of geopolitical fragmentation, which could jeopardize the development gains of the last 75 years, and also leave us unable to deal with the current crisis and to address other urgent global challenges such as climate change.”
It almost comes naturally to think that negative and slow growth are maladies more likely to affect the smallest and most fragile global players. In reality, it is often the opposite: not only many small emerging nations do rank among the fastest-growing economies in the world, but among those countries that in recent years have been impacted by sluggish growth one can find most Mediterranean EU members, as well as surprises such as Germany, Switzerland, Finland and Japan.
Indeed, some emerging and oil-export nations will be among the fastest-growing this year. These economies expand precisely because there is more room for growth compared to already mature and developed countries—they boast a younger population, they are improving their infrastructure, they are attracting new investments.
Other emerging and frontier markets—especially those that are bearing the brunt of rising food and fuel costs—will fare much worse. For them, the challenges of this multi-faceted crisis are the most severe and include increased fiscal strain, collapse in internal and external demand, political instability. These countries will endure a deeper, longer-lasting downturn that will halt or reverse hard-fought gains made over the past decade.
Covid-19 triggered the first increase in global poverty in more than two decades—rising inflation and the effects of the war in Ukraine have only made things harder. According to the World Bank, compared to pre-pandemic projections, these combined crises will lead to an additional 75 million to 95 million people living in extreme poverty in 2022, for a total number that is expected to lie between 657 million and 677 million.
But what about those nations directly involved in the conflict? War, contrary to what the old adage claims, is generally bad for business. At the very bottom of the global GDP ranking stands Ukraine (whose economy will contract this year by an estimated -35%), Russia (-8.5%) and Belarus (-6.4%). Countries marred by conflict and violence such as Syria or Afghanistan have stood where these nations stand now. To this day, their financial and political situation is so bleak and uncertain that the IMF excludes them from its economic projections.
| Region | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 5-Year Avg. GDP % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | 3.5 | 3.2 | -3.8 | 3.4 | -35.0 | -5.7 |
| Russia | 2.8 | 2.2 | -2.7 | 4.7 | -8.5 | -0.3 |
| Belarus | 3.1 | 1.4 | -0.7 | 2.3 | -6.4 | 0.0 |
| Solomon Islands | 3.9 | 1.2 | -4.3 | -0.2 | -4.0 | -0.7 |
| Tonga | 03. | 0.7 | 0.7 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.1 |
| Micronesia | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.8 | -3.2 | -0.5 | -0.8 |
| Samoa | -1.2 | 4.4 | -2.6 | -8.1 | 0.0 | -1.5 |
| Estonia | 4.1 | 4.1 | -3.0 | 8.3 | 0.2 | 2.8 |
| Sudan | -2.3 | -2.5 | -3.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
| Paraguay | 3.2 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 4.2 | 0.3 | -1.5 |
| Moldova | 4.3 | 3.7 | -8.3 | 13.9 | 0.3 | 2.8 |
| Haiti | 1.7 | -1.7 | -3.3 | -1.8 | 0.3 | -1.0 |
| Hong Kong SAR | 2.8 | -1.7 | -6.5 | 6.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Brazil | 1.8 | 1.2 | -3.9 | 4.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Kyrgyz Republic | 3.5 | 4.6 | -8.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Nauru | 5.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Yemen | 0.8 | 1.4 | -8.5 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -1.5 |
| Latvia | 4.0 | 4.6 | -0.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | -2.3 |
| Kiribati | 5.3 | -0.5 | -0.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Morocco | 3.1 | 2.6 | -6.3 | 7.2 | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| San Marino | 1.5 | 2.1 | -6.6 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Venezuela | -19.6 | -35.0 | -30.0 | -1.5 | 1.5 | -16.9 |
| Chile | 4.0 | 0.8 | -6.1 | 11.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Armenia | 5.2 | 7.6 | -7.4 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Turkmenistan | 0.9 | -3.4 | -3.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Finland | 1.1 | 1.2 | -2.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Myanmar | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.2 | -17.9 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| São Tomé and Príncipe | 3.0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 |
| Luxembourg | 2.0 | 3.3 | -1.8 | 6.9 | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Suriname | 4.9 | 1.1 | -15.9 | -3.5 | 1.8 | -2.3 |
| Lithuania | 4.0 | 4.6 | -0.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 3.0 |
| South Africa | 1.5 | 0.1 | -6.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 |
| Timor-Leste | -0.7 | 2.1 | -8.6 | 1.8 | 2.0 | -0.7 |
| Mongolia | 7.7 | 5.6 | -4.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| Mexico | 2.2 | -0.2 | -8.2 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.1 |
| Marshall Islands | 3.1 | 6.8 | -2.4 | -1.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| Albania | 4.0 | 2.1 | -3.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Mali | 4.7 | 4.8 | -1.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 |
| Eswatini | 2.4 | 2.6 | -1.9 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| Belgium | 1.8 | 2.1 | -3.5 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.6 |
| Germany | 1.1 | 1.1 | -4.6 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 |
| Cyprus | 5.7 | 5.3 | -5.0 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Vanatu | 2.9 | 3.2 | -5.4 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| Switzerland | 2.9 | 1.2 | -2.5 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Romania | 4.5 | 4.2 | -3.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 |
| Tunisia | 2.5 | 1.5 | -9.3 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.0 |
| Italy | 0.9 | 0.5 | -9.0 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.3 |
| Czech Republic | 3.2 | 3.0 | -5.8 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 |
| Denmark | 2.0 | 2.1 | -2.1 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Kazakhstan | 4.1 | 4.5 | -2.6 | 4.0 | .23 | 2.5 |
| Japan | 0.6 | -0.2 | -4.5 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 0.0 |
| Republic of Congo | -4.8 | -0.4 | -8.1 | -0.2 | 2.4 | -2.2 |
| Jordan | 1.9 | 2.0 | -1.6 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Algeria | 1.2 | 0.8 | -4.9 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 3.7 | 2.8 | -3.1 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Jamaica | 1.8 | 1.0 | -10.0 | 4.4 | 2.5 | -0.1 |
| Tajikistan | 7.6 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 2.5 | 6.2 |
| South Korea | 2.9 | 2.2 | -0.9 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| Sri Lanka | 3.3 | 2.3 | -3.6 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Austria | 2.5 | 1.5 | -6.7 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| Slovak Republic | 3.8 | 2.6 | -4.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 |
| Aruba | 1.3 | -2.1 | -22.3 | 16.8 | 2.7 | -0.7 |
| Turkey | 3.0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 11.0 | 2.7 | 3.9 |
| Malawi | 4.4 | 5.4 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Croatia | 1.1 | -0.9 | -8.5 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 2.3 |
| New Zealand | 3.4 | 2.9 | -2.1 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Gabon | 0.8 | 3.9 | -1.9 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Namibia | 1.1 | -0.9 | -8.5 | 0.9 | 2.7 | -0.9 |
| Kosovo | 3.4 | 4.8 | -5.3 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Azerbaijan | 1.5 | 2.5 | -4.3 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| Ecuador | 1.3 | 0.0 | -7.8 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| Sweden | 2.0 | 2.0 | -2.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.7 |
| France | 1.8 | 1.8 | -8.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| Peru | 4.0 | 2.2 | -11.0 | 13.3 | 3.0 | 2.3 |
| Netherlands | 2.4 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.7 |
| Angola | -2.0 | -0.7 | -5.6 | 0.7 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| Tuvalu | 1.6 | 13.9 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 4.4 |
| Somalia | 3.8 | 3.3 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 |
| El Salvador | 2.4 | 2.6 | -7.9 | 10.3 | 3.0 | 2.1 |
| Djibouti | 8.5 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 4.6 |
| Iran | -2.3 | -1.3 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Lesotho | -0.3 | N/A | -6.0 | 2.1 | 3.1 | -0.3 |
| Zambia | 4.0 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 |
| North Macedonia | 2.9 | 3.9 | -6.1 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| Lao P.D.R. | 6.3 | 4.7 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Georgia | 4.8 | 5.0 | -6.8 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Bulgaria | 2.7 | 4.0 | -4.4 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.9 |
| Taiwan | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| Iceland | 4.9 | 2.4 | -7.1 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| Bahrain | 2.1 | 2.2 | -4.9 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| Chad | 2.4 | 3.4 | -2.2 | -1.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| Thailand | 4.2 | 2.2 | -6.2 | 1.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 |
| Costa Rica | 2.6 | 2.4 | -4.1 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 2.4 |
| Uzbekistan | 5.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 4.8 |
| Qatar | 1.2 | 0.7 | -3.6 | 1.5 | 3.4 | 0.7 |
| Nigeria | 1.9 | 2.2 | -1.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| Sierra Leone | 3.5 | 5.3 | -2.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 |
| Zimbabwe | 4.7 | -6.1 | -5.3 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 0.6 |
| Libya | 17.9 | 13.2 | -59.7 | 177.3 | 3.5 | 30.4 |
| Serbia | 4.5 | 4.3 | -0.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| Greece | 1.7 | 1.8 | -9.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| Comoros | 3.6 | 1.8 | -0.3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| Central African Republic | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| Grenada | 4.4 | 0.7 | -13.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 0.1 |
| Burundi | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 |
| United States | 2.9 | 2.3 | -3.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 2.2 |
| Slovenia | 4.4 | 3.3 | -4.2 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.1 |
| Poland | 5.4 | 4.7 | -2.5 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 3.4 |
| Hungary | 5.4 | 4.6 | -4.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 |
| United Kingdom | 1.7 | 1.7 | -9.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.0 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 3.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.4 |
| Nicaragua | -3.4 | -3.7 | -2.0 | 10.3 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| Montenegro | 5.1 | 4.1 | -15.3 | 12.4 | 3.8 | 2.0 |
| Honduras | 3.8 | 2.7 | -9.0 | 12.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 |
| Bolivia | 4.2 | 2.2 | -8.7 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| Mozambique | 3.4 | 2.3 | -1.2 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| Ethiopia | 7.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| Uruguay | 0.5 | 04 | -6.1 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 0.6 |
| Canada | 2.8 | 1.9 | -5.2 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| Singapore | 3.7 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| Pakistan | 6.1 | 3.1 | -1.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Guatemala | 3.3 | 3.9 | -1.5 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 |
| Norway | 1.1 | 0.7 | -0.7 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| West Bank and Gaza | 2.8 | 2.0 | -1.8 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Portugal | 2.8 | 2.0 | -1.8 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.2 |
| Argentina | -2.6 | -2.0 | -9.9 | 10.2 | 4.0 | -0.1 |
| Nepal | 7.6 | 6.7 | -2.1 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 |
| Australia | 2.8 | 2.0 | -2.2 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
| United Arab Emirates | 1.2 | 3.4 | -1.6 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 1.0 |
| Cameroon | 4.0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.2 |
| Botswana | 4.2 | 3.0 | -8.7 | 12.5 | 4.3 | 3.1 |
| China | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Bhutan | 3.8 | 4.4 | -2.4 | -3.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| Andorra | 1.6 | 2.0 | -11.2 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.2 |
| Liberia | 1.2 | -2.5 | -3.0 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 |
| Seychelles | 3.2 | 3.1 | -7.7 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| Eritrea | 13.0 | 3.8 | -0.6 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Burkina Faso | 6.7 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 5.2 |
| Guinea | 6.4 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| Papa New Guinea | -0.3 | 4.5 | -3.5 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 1.4 |
| Malta | 6.0 | 5.9 | -8.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 3.6 |
| Puerto Rico | -4.2 | 1.5 | -3.9 | 1.0 | 4.8 | -0.2 |
| Spain | 2.3 | 2.1 | -10.8 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 0.7 |
| Tanzania | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Uganda | 5.6 | 7.7 | -1.4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
| Mauritania | 4.5 | 5.8 | -1.8 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 3.3 |
| Israel | 4.0 | 3.8 | -2.2 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 3.8 |
| St. Vincent and the Grenadines | 3.1 | 0.4 | -5.3 | -0.5 | 5.0 | 0.5 |
| Senegal | 6.2 | 4.6 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.6 |
| Cambodia | 7.5 | 7.1 | -3.1 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 3.7 |
| Madagascar | 3.2 | 4.4 | -7.1 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 |
| Ireland | 9.0 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 13.5 | 5.2 | 7.7 |
| Cabo Verde | 4.5 | 5.7 | -14.8 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 1.5 |
| Ghana | 6.2 | 6.5 | 0.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| Indonesia | 5.2 | 5.0 | -2.1 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.4 |
| Trinidad and Tobago | -0.7 | -0.2 | -7.4 | -1.0 | 5.5 | -0.8 |
| Dominican Republic | 7.0 | 5.1 | -6.7 | 12.3 | 5.5 | 4.6 |
| Oman | 0.9 | -0.8 | -2.8 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 1.0 |
| Togo | 5.0 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| The Gambia | 7.2 | 6.2 | -0.2 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Malaysia | 4.8 | 4.4 | -5.6 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 |
| Kenya | 5.6 | 5.0 | -0.3 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| Belize | 2.0 | 2.0 | -16.7 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 0.5 |
| Colombia | 2.6 | 3.2 | -7.0 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Brunei Darussalam | 0.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | -0.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Egypt | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 4.7 |
| Benin | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 |
| Côte d’Ivoire | 6.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 5.5 |
| The Bahamas | 2.8 | 0.7 | -14.5 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 0.1 |
| Vietnam | 7.2 | 72. | 2.9 | 2.6 | 6.0 | 5.2 |
| Maldives | 8.1 | 6.9 | -33.5 | 33.4 | 6.1 | 4.2 |
| Equatorial Guinea | -6.2 | -6.0 | -4.9 | -3.5 | 6.1 | -2.9 |
| Mauritius | 3.8 | 3.0 | -14.9 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 0.4 |
| Rwanda | 8.6 | 9.5 | -3.4 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 6.3 |
| Bangladesh | 7.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 4.8 |
| Philippines | 6.3 | 6.1 | -9.6 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.0 |
| South Sudan | -1.9 | 0.9 | -6.6 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 0.8 |
| Antigua and Barbados | 6.9 | 4.9 | -20.2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 0.6 |
| Dominica | 3.5 | 7.5 | -11.0 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 2.1 |
| Fiji | 3.8 | -0.4 | -15.2 | -4.0 | 6.8 | 2.1 |
| Niger | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| Panama | 3.7 | 3.0 | -17.9 | 15.3 | 7.5 | 2.3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 2.5 | 0.3 | -4.1 | 3.2 | 7.6 | 1.9 |
| Palau | -0.1 | -1.9 | -9.7 | -17.1 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| India | 6.5 | 3.7 | -6.6 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 |
| Kuwait | 2.4 | -0.6 | -8.9 | 1.3 | 8.2 | 0.5 |
| Iraq | 4.7 | 5.8 | -15.7 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 2.1 |
| St. Lucia | 2.9 | -0.1 | -20.4 | 6.8 | 9.7 | -0.2 |
| St. Kitts and Nevls | 2.7 | 4.8 | -14.0 | -3.6 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
| Barbados | -0.6 | -1.3 | -13.7 | 1.4 | 11.2 | -0.6 |
| Macao SAR | 6.5 | -2.5 | -54.0 | 18.0 | 15.5 | -3.3 |
| Guyana | 4.4 | 5.4 | 43.5 | 19.9 | 47.2 | 24.1 |
The Gross Domestic Product of a country can be defined as the total monetary value of the goods and services produced within its borders in a year. GDP growth is expressed as a percent. The average growth rate has been calculated using the geometric mean to obtain a 5-year equivalent rate.
